25IQ

Q3 Real GDP rose by 2%, right in line with expectations Nominal GDP was better than expected, rising 4.3% vs the estimated gain of 3.8%, the difference being the inflation price deflator which rose 2.3%. Personal Spending, 70% of the figure, rose by 2.6%, .1% better than expected and the best gain since Q4 ’06. It added 1.8 % pts  to GDP.  http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/q3-gdp-in-line-but-ordinary/

Mauldin:  “We need about 100,000-125,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with population growth, and a 2% GDP will not give us half that, as we saw last quarter. Most economists say you need about 3.5% GDP growth to get solid job reports. http://www.businessinsider.com/hey-republicans-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-2010-10#ixzz13qzO2Rdn

Delong:  “I’ve been expecting a long, slow, agonizing recovery, in part because there’s little chance that fiscal policy authorities will give the economy the boost it needs to recover faster… full recovery by 2013 is looking optimistic now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes even longer than that.

Thoma:  “Positive growth is better than negative growth, but this is a loss relative to trend growth, and the fact the inventories are driving growth is of concern.   http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/10/this-is-not-a-strong-gdp-report.html 

Bill Gross has been wrong before re bonds turning http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/update-pimcos-bill-gross-has-called-end.html

“The people who did not get us into trouble are being penalized by getting nothing on their savings.”  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/business/economy/29norris.html?pagewanted=2

In China growth of 9.6% (recorded in the year to the third quarter) represents a slowdown. China will account for almost a fifth of world growth this year, according to the IMF; at purchasing-power parity, it will account for just over a quarter. http://www.economist.com/node/17363625

The Congressional Budget Office, which produces dry, cautious budget projections, recently reminded Congress that Social Security as a percent of GDP will rise from 5 to 6 percent in 2035 and simply stay at that level for the foreseeable future. In other words, the much decried shortfall amounts to only 1 percent of GDP over three decades. And this may be exaggerated. As some observe, much will depend on the flow of young immigrant workers to America. The more workers contributing to Social Security, the smaller any future deficit will be. And the CBO projections tend to make overly conservative estimates about such immigration in the decades to come. Meanwhile, Federal spending on healthcare—essentially, Medicare and Medicaid—will double from 5 to 10 percent over the same period. http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2010/oct/29/big-lie-about-social-security/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nybooks+%28The+New+York+Review+of+Books%29

Gladwell: “An investor like Warren Buffett has to think that he is smarter than the market. Private-equity managers aim higher. They see themselves as smarter than the managers of the companies they are buying. It is not a field for someone with any obvious deficits in self-confidence.”  http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2010/11/01/101101crbo_books_gladwell?currentPage=all#ixzz13rgL0Q7D